Lucy Jones, a leading seismologist for the United States Geological Survey (USGS) and the California Technical Institute (Caltech), gives a presentation during a luncheon at the Apartment Association of California Southern Cities, Inc.’s (AACSC) 46th Annual Rental Housing Expo at the Long Beach Convention Center on Thursday, Sept. 18.
-Staff Writer-
Southern California is due for another major earthquake, but much of the damage caused by such an event can be prevented if people start preparing now, expert seismologist Lucy Jones said during a conference in Long Beach last week.
Jones, who has appeared on TV for decades as the nation’s foremost authority on earthquakes and a leading seismologist for the United States Geological Survey (USGS) and the California Technical Institute (Caltech), gave a presentation as the keynote speaker for a luncheon at the Apartment Association of California Southern Cities, Inc.’s (AACSC) 46th Annual Rental Housing Expo on Thursday, Sept. 18.
Before a large crowd in a ballroom at the Long Beach Convention Center, Jones explained that Southern California remains the most vulnerable place for seismic activity in the nation, with more than 100 faults in Los Angeles County alone.
Experts predict that a major earthquake— one as big as or larger than the 6.7-magnitude Northridge earthquake that struck in 1994— has the potential to kill some 1,800 people in Southern California and leave about 50,000 people injured.
According to predictions, in such an earthquake, about 1,500 buildings would collapse while about 300,000 buildings would suffer significant damage. In total, earthquake experts predict that the next “big one” could cause $213 billion in damage in the state.
Still, Jones said much of the damage could be avoided if people start preparing now by retrofitting buildings and upgrading utility pipes to make them earthquake-resilient. Though preventing loss of life is a top priority, just as important is figuring out how long it would take for the area to recover from such a damaging earthquake, she explained.
“The earthquake is inevitable, the disaster is not,” Jones said. “And, really, we are making choices that determine what it’s going to be like after that earthquake happens.”
One of the main concerns for the region is loss of water, she said, adding that 70 percent of the water pipes in California are made of asbestos-concrete (AC), which is brittle and has the most potential for breaking in an earthquake. Jones said that it could take up to six months to repair ruptured water pipes after a major earthquake.
“Not having water for six months starts having really long-term consequences,” she said, adding that such a scenario could cause business-disruption costs of $50 billion.
Jones said she is working with the City of Los Angeles to develop a way for the City to change out its water pipeline system. She said changing the city’s pipes to an earthquake-resistant system is an “expensive” endeavor.
However, Jones said other parts of the world are already experiencing successes, noting that none of the newly installed earthquake-resistant pipes in New Zealand broke during a large earthquake in 2011 while older pipes ruptured.
“There are solutions,” Jones said. “There are pipes that we can use that will protect our water system.”
She added that another major safety risk in earthquakes is outdated buildings, particularly brick buildings. She added that current building codes only focus on keeping tenants and occupants alive during an earthquake but don’t focus on sustaining the building after the earthquake hits. With current building codes, 1 percent of buildings throughout cities during a major earthquake have the potential to collapse while 10 percent would be “red-flagged” and 40 percent would be “yellow-tagged,” Jones said.
She noted that there are no brick buildings in Los Angeles and Long Beach that are un-retrofitted. However, cities should start developing building codes that do more than just keep people alive but that actually enable the building to survive as well, Jones said.
“Current code is not trying to make your building useful after an earthquake,” she said. “It’s trying to make sure it doesn’t kill anybody. And so, we accept a certain level of some chance that it will collapse and a greater chance that you won’t be able to use it.”
Jones added that, in some cases, property owners are refusing to retrofit their buildings because of the costs associated with the upgrades, however, she said un-retrofitted building presents a risk for the entire community because, if a building collapses, it may cause damage to its neighbors and local infrastructure.
Making sure communication streams, including Internet and cellphone access, remains functioning after an earthquake is also critical, she said. However, Jones said there are still a lot of unknowns about keeping such technology up and running in a disaster.
Overall, Jones said it’s important that all parts of infrastructure are working properly so that a damaging earthquake doesn’t create a disastrous situation.
For cities, the primary focus in accomplishing urban resilience to earthquakes, she said, is making sure people stay alive, adding that police and fire departments have to be able to respond “effectively” in an earthquake. Model predictions show that, in a large San Andreas-fault earthquake, the loss of life would double because of fires that may erupt after the earthquake hits, Jones said.
Still, she said the risk of being killed in an earthquake is relatively low, adding that there’s a higher chance of being killed in a car crash or by being hit by lightning.
Jones said cities primarily focus on saving lives but should also prepare for long-term recovery, adding that a major earthquake could devastate the local economy in Southern California, leaving a situation such as New Orleans, which, after Hurricane Katrina, is still losing about $15 billion a year in economic activity. She said the Northridge earthquake created a housing shortage after thousands of rental units were either demolished or deemed too damaged for occupancy.
“The ability of our city to respond, [including] all of our fire departments and all of our police departments, is an incredibly important part of the picture, but, then, the other really important part that we don’t think about is recovery,” Jones aid. “Okay, you have the earthquake. You live through it. We’ve lost a lot of our city functions. How do we get back together and keep the economy going and keep our workforce in place and keep our families here? How do we keep on being able to make money after the earthquake? That’s the key problem.”
Other experts who spoke during a panel discussion urged residents and businesses to be prepared to survive on their own without any assistance since emergency services will likely be stretched thin during an earthquake. Some experts noted that it’s important to know how to shut off utilities, such as gas and electricity, while others stressed the importance of obtaining earthquake insurance.
Jacob Heflin, spokesperson for the Long Beach Fire Department and program manager for the City’s community emergency response teams (CERT), said during the panel that the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) suggests that people should be prepared to live on their own for at least 72 hours if not five to 10 days.
“We really have to pave those preventative measures now so that we can be self-sustaining,” he said. “You, as owners and residents and tenants, have the skills, knowledge and abilities to make sure you can take care of yourself and your families.
Regardless of whether or not we want to be there as a fire department to help support you, the reality is we won’t have enough resources to do that. We’ll have to rely on resources coming from outside jurisdictions to help increase our ability to meet your needs.”
Reggie Harrison, Long Beach deputy city manager and director of the City’s disaster-preparedness and emergency-communications programs, encouraged residents to “be connected, be prepared and be active.” He said residents should know their neighborhoods and make plans with neighbors to know who has certain knowledge or certifications to assist in a disaster.
Harrison, who is currently working as the interim manager for the Long Beach Airport, said residents should buy or make their own emergency kits that may include enough water and resources for at least five days. He added that the City is spearheading a program in which all city staff will obtain emergency kits by Oct. 16, which is when the Great American ShakeOut earthquake drills will occur.
Harrison noted that the City is working with Jones, the USGS, Caltech and the American Red Cross to soon launch an earthquake “early warning system,” in which the public would be notified by cellphone or other technological means seconds or a minute in advance of an earthquake.
The system, he said, may help give a small warning to members of the public to prevent disastrous situations in such places as hospital surgery rooms or terminals at the Port of Long Beach.
“We need to better understand how we’re going to work together and prevent a disaster,” Harrison said. “We’re working on a number of fronts in the city of Long Beach to help this community be prepared.”
