Staff Writer
As water levels recover from the most recent drought, California may have successfully dodged a bullet. However, the next bullet may hit too close for comfort.
Lack of snow atop the Sierra Nevada mountain range in Northern California could lead to severe climate shifts and higher temperatures in the region, according to Dr. Alex Hall, who spoke about climate change during a presentation at the Aquarium of the Pacific on June 22.
Dr. Hall is a professor at UCLA’s Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and Institute of the Environment and Sustainability.
During his presentation, Hall spoke about the importance of mitigating the consumption of fossil fuels to reduce negative impacts to the areas in which citizens live.
He said that snow coverage of the Sierra Nevada is important because it reflects sunlight due to its albedo effect— a fraction of solar energy reflected from Earth back into space. The white snow cap can reflect more sunlight than the dark ground beneath it. The more snow there is on the mountain tops, the longer it takes for the snow to melt.
As the winter season transitions into warmer temperatures, municipalities collect and store reserves of the water from the melted snow.
Historical data of when the snow melts has helped decision makers plan when to use the reserved water. However, if there is less snow to reflect sunlight and the snow melts faster than previously recorded, then large cities such as Los Angeles and Long Beach are more likely to consume reserved water faster than anticipated.
This could lead to dire circumstances when a possible drought hits California.
Hall and his group of researchers call this the snow albedo feedback— a loop in which warming causes snow cover loss, and snow cover loss increases warming.
This “UCLA study is the most comprehensive study of future climate in the Sierra Nevada to date because it takes into account this feedback loop and considers multiple greenhouse gas scenarios,” according to a PDF version of this scientific paper found on the department’s website.
Most scientific studies about climate patterns are made possible via global models.
These tools allow scientists to create climate scenarios to predict changes around the world. The downside to most models is that the resolution used to study a continent is too large to focus on smaller areas, such as the Sierra Nevada.
Hall’s team was able to pinpoint its study in the mountain range and created two scenarios that could take place: “business as usual” and “mitigation.”
Business-as-usual scenarios showed the audience what the climate will look like if society continues to burn fossil fuels at the same rate as it does today. These projections were pitted against a different set of situations represented by the “mitigation” process, which represents what percentage of snow coverage could be saved if society reduces its carbon footprint.
For example, Hall stated that if there was 100-percent snow coverage from 1980 to 2000, then there would be only 36 percent snow coverage from 2081 to 2100 under the business-as-usual scenario.
The rising temperature as a result of low snow coverage impacts wildlife in the region as well. Salmon and steelhead fish, found in the rivers of the Sierra Nevada, require cool water to mate. Warmer waters can steadily affect these species’ life cycles.
Despite all the scientific research done to better understand the climate, Hall said that change is going to be inevitable. His studies showed more snow packs during drought seasons prior to the Industrial Revolution.
Hall hopes that mitigation procedures can lessen the severity of climate change despite foreseen increases in the temperature.
“If we follow business-as-usual, the Sierra Nevada climate will be unrecognizably different,” Hall said.
Hall pointed out that innovations in groundwater engineering and economics are feasible ways to help mitigate climate change.
“The State’s water conveyance system is the foundation of contemporary life in California,” Hall said. “It may seem an ironic twist of fate, but the most vulnerable aspect of our natural resource system is the one we try to exert almost total control over.”
He said California uses large amounts of water to keep non-native plants alive.
“In Los Angeles, more than half of the water is used for outdoor irrigation,” he said.
Hall recommends investing in plants that are suitable for California’s “Mediterranean” climate. He also stated that modern urbanization infrastructure allows for roughly 15 inches of rain fall received in an average year to wash away into the ocean. He did credit Long Beach for the use of local water as opposed to imported water, specifically from Northern California.
Hall believes that decarbonizing California’s economy can set an example for the rest of the world to follow.
This presentation on climate comes three weeks after President Donald Trump withdrew the United States from the Paris Climate Accord— a landmark agreement by 195 sovereign nations to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
“We have a chance to demonstrate to the rest of the nation, and the world, that a truly sustainable approach to natural resources is perfectly compatible with a prosperous and highly advanced economy,” Hall said. “California’s role as a world leader in sustainability is even more crucial given the current political environment in Washington D.C.”
The UCLA professor said he is confident that California could lead a revolution in renewable energy, thus selling the know-how and technology to other nations willing to make the first steps toward mitigation.
“Our knowledge about climate change, like the projected impacts on the Sierra Nevada I just showed you, is beckoning us to meet this challenge,” Hall said. “We are in a position to succeed.”
